Destined for War: Escaping Thucydides' Trap

Transcript here.

If the US and China go to war, what would happen to Chinese Australians, those who identify as having Chinese ancestry (5.5% of the population according to the 2021 census), given Australia's strong political alliance with the US? It's a reasonable line of enquiry, since the countries are considered to be on a collision course.

I am not a political scientist and have no expertise in military strategy, economics, international law or trade trends or anything relevant. I haven't even taken a single university unit in these areas. I barely follow Australian federal politics, let alone Chinese and American. I don't watch TV. I only listen to Classic FM on the radio occasionally, preferring Baroque and Classical. I'm in a kind of apolitical bubble. I use social media and see many news headlines curated by my Google feed (e.g. Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Channel Nine, Yahoo, Sydney Morning Herald and so on.) So I would be a prime target for Australian-US anti-Chinese propaganda if it weren't for studying Chinese (普通话) at university in Australia since early 2021, and becoming interested in modern trends.

That said, none of my Chinese units at university ever touched on anything political. None of my extracurricular Chinese courses have, either. My Pimsleur Chinese course has had business phrases like "China is the world's factory" and "Shenzhen was formerly a small village, now it's a global financial trade centre." It was designed to help people do business in China but has never discussed the CCP. I've watched oodles and oodles of Chinese dramas on Netflix, Youtube, iQiyi and have been reading more books lately. But to be honest, the most political of any of these was "The Story of Xing Fu", where I got to see how local government works and interacts with the legal system. I see many college dramas have the first year students doing an obligatory period of military training, and that historical dramas are brimming with martial arts, kingdoms going to war, court intrigue, long-running vendettas and so on. Besides that, I'm reading a lot more, but it's all literary, rather than modern. My main source of Chinese - US political analysis information comes from the likes of email newsletters written by Pekinology and the like.

In terms of Australian politics, I tend to vote Independents, and don't affiliate with a party. I focus on policies, so I like people like David O'Byrne and Andrew Wilkins in Tasmania, or Kyam Maher in South Australia, who have fought hard against the gambling lobby, or for indigenous Australians to have a greater voice in politics. I guess I'm something of a socialist. But I'm more interested in philosophy and the creative arts! I will sign a petition --- probably two or three a week --- if I think the Australian government needs to do something like save the Maugean skate or reduce plastic pollution. I don't participate in local politics either. I'm fairly complacent.

So with this in mind, here are my thoughts. To my mind, it is the US who is the antagonist as a global political power. Apparently, the US administration and US population are largely anti-Chinese (say 80-90%), although in a fairly complacent, whingey way, just like in Australia. Many Australians are very proud of our country's industries and brands, and we pooh-pooh foreign products, especially anything "Made in China". But the majority of us would only grumble, we wouldn't physically attack a Chinese person, at least, not in the current climate.

I believe China would not initiate but definitely retaliate if pushed, out of self-defence. On my first visit to China late last year, I stayed with a Chinese teacher and her engineer husband for a week, to receive Chinese language lessons in a home-stay context. I stayed in the son's bedroom and there was a CCP badge on the corkboard, which surprised me. I didn't realise how familial Chinese politics was, because most Australians are pretty anti-politics. When watched the news on tv, military news was included and featured interviews with soldiers and tours of various infrastructure or army demonstrations. Talking with 刘先生 I discovered he was strongly anti-US owing to actions they'd taken somewhere in China (I can't remember the details!). I was kind of shocked, although I'd heard much the same thing about the US for its actions in Iraq --- for me, though, it's pretty disconnected and airy-fairy. I've never been in the military; my uncle, cousins and niece have been or are members, but I've just visited Kapooka once for a Passing Out Parade (my niece's graduation). 刘先生 was also sickened by how the Japanese had allowed nuclear waste to be disposed into the sea connecting them and China. So he was affected by specific injust events. He seemed a completely reasonable, ordinary person. I don't have any sentiment against the CCP. I have a six-volume set of books on Chinese history (in Chinese) at home, but I haven't started reading it yet --- my last Christmas present from my dear friend, Paul.

In other words, if there were a war to break out between China and the US, obviously the majority of Australians would take on intensified anti-Chinese beliefs and also enact them, because most people would have family or friends in the military fighting directly against the Chinese. Economically, it would be a disaster for Australia, because of our strong trade ties with China, which effects on household cashflows would embitter and worsen the racism. So it would be a nasty time. Given the high number of Chinese-identifying Australians, many would return or be deported to China and the rest wouldn't be interned in camps and on islands as aliens, as happened formerly in the World Wars, but probably placed under house arrest with curfews and communication restrictions. Access to welfare, health, education, legal and other support services would be much reduced or maybe even discontinued altogether, as we'd be treated as unwelcome, much like illegal immigrants. I think it would last for years, given the strength of the opponents.

Of course, I am dead against a war. The Earth is already in a dreadful state. Species extinction and habitat destruction continue with slight checks, we've reached peak oil, climate change is causing terrible bushfires each summer in countries all around the world, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are seeing horrendous, inhumane actions like deliberate killing of civilians and children, all countries are still suffering from the health and economic outfalls of COVID-19, and people are still traumatised by what happened during lockdowns. The amount of suffering in a US-China war would be extreme. I think it would act like a metastatic cancer, killing an already very weak system.

I am currently undergoing treatment for so-called Australian Lyme-like disease, on top of other mental health and medical issues, and I'm almost fifty. There are many in Australia similar or worse than me, Chinese or not. I don't think I would survive it.

We have to fight against the possibility of a war with every means of peace and non-violence possible.